I’ve done more analysis of proportional allocation, and it can, perhaps, be made to work, but it’s hokey. Let’s start with the raw popular vote (courtesy of ABC News’ website):
State | Electoral Votes |
Bush | Gore | Nader | Buchanan |
Alabama | 9 | 940153 | 694734 | 17983 | 6303 |
Alaska | 3 | 134829 | 63437 | 22601 | 4194 |
Arizona | 8 | 673657 | 609937 | 40301 | 10903 |
Arkansas | 6 | 469918 | 417949 | 13205 | 10936 |
California | 54 | 4054756 | 5254500 | 372543 | 39897 |
Colorado | 8 | 883858 | 738378 | 91461 | 10479 |
Connecticut | 8 | 544704 | 789532 | 59950 | 4382 |
Delaware | 3 | 137081 | 180638 | 8288 | 775 |
District of Columbia | 3 | 17020 | 162004 | 9925 | 0 |
Florida | 25 | 2910203 | 2909872 | 96844 | 17358 |
Georgia | 13 | 1404058 | 1101101 | 0 | 10868 |
Hawaii | 4 | 137785 | 205209 | 21609 | 1071 |
Idaho | 4 | 336299 | 138354 | 0 | 7687 |
Illinois | 22 | 2012154 | 2566489 | 103028 | 16060 |
Indiana | 12 | 1231713 | 888201 | 0 | 17173 |
Iowa | 7 | 628716 | 633969 | 27898 | 6942 |
Kansas | 6 | 614419 | 391026 | 35583 | 7239 |
Kentucky | 8 | 869946 | 637518 | 23125 | 4181 |
Louisiana | 9 | 924670 | 789837 | 20817 | 14478 |
Maine | 4 | 283988 | 315466 | 37757 | 4315 |
Maryland | 10 | 770911 | 1093344 | 51078 | 4067 |
Massachusetts | 12 | 876106 | 1610175 | 173758 | 11086 |
Michigan | 18 | 1936288 | 2140755 | 81089 | 0 |
Minnesota | 10 | 1110192 | 1168091 | 126579 | 22256 |
Mississippi | 7 | 548634 | 399306 | 7890 | 2233 |
Missouri | 11 | 1189521 | 1110826 | 38488 | 9806 |
Montana | 3 | 239755 | 137264 | 24487 | 5735 |
Nebraska | 5 | 408719 | 215616 | 22975 | 3431 |
Nevada | 4 | 301539 | 279949 | 15004 | 4747 |
New Hampshire | 4 | 273135 | 265853 | 22156 | 2603 |
New Jersey | 15 | 1247791 | 1729021 | 92333 | 6868 |
New Mexico | 5 | 258795 | 267501 | 19911 | 1347 |
New York | 33 | 2218620 | 3742101 | 222075 | 33202 |
North Carolina | 14 | 1607238 | 1236721 | 0 | 8971 |
North Dakota | 3 | 175547 | 95723 | 9524 | 7330 |
Ohio | 21 | 2294049 | 2117555 | 114474 | 25980 |
Oklahoma | 8 | 744335 | 474326 | 0 | 9014 |
Oregon | 7 | 667803 | 671178 | 68175 | 6490 |
Pennsylvania | 23 | 2264309 | 2465412 | 102453 | 16879 |
Rhode Island | 4 | 132212 | 252844 | 24115 | 2250 |
South Carolina | 8 | 804826 | 578143 | 21008 | 3540 |
South Dakota | 3 | 190515 | 118750 | 0 | 3314 |
Tennessee | 11 | 1056480 | 977789 | 19694 | 4218 |
Texas | 32 | 3796249 | 2427785 | 137706 | 12423 |
Utah | 5 | 512161 | 201732 | 35661 | 9277 |
Vermont | 3 | 119273 | 148166 | 19810 | 2182 |
Virginia | 13 | 1426951 | 1216925 | 58864 | 5578 |
Washington | 11 | 794567 | 883794 | 69578 | 4953 |
West Virginia | 5 | 329708 | 291088 | 10440 | 3101 |
Wisconsin | 11 | 1235991 | 1242115 | 92925 | 11206 |
Wyoming | 3 | 147674 | 60421 | 0 | 2724 |
Total | 538 | 48889821 | 49108420 | 2685168 | 442052 |
Now, if we allocate the electoral votes in each state in strict proportion to the popular vote in the state, we get this result:
State | Bush | Gore | Nader | Buchanan |
Alabama | 5.1 | 3.769 | 0.098 | 0.034 |
Alaska | 1.797 | 0.846 | 0.301 | 0.056 |
Arizona | 4.038 | 3.656 | 0.242 | 0.065 |
Arkansas | 3.092 | 2.75 | 0.087 | 0.072 |
California | 22.522 | 29.187 | 2.069 | 0.222 |
Colorado | 4.101 | 3.426 | 0.424 | 0.049 |
Connecticut | 3.116 | 4.516 | 0.343 | 0.025 |
Delaware | 1.258 | 1.658 | 0.076 | 0.007 |
District of Columbia | 0.27 | 2.572 | 0.158 | 0 |
Florida | 12.26 | 12.259 | 0.408 | 0.073 |
Georgia | 7.255 | 5.689 | 0 | 0.056 |
Hawaii | 1.507 | 2.245 | 0.236 | 0.012 |
Idaho | 2.789 | 1.147 | 0 | 0.064 |
Illinois | 9.423 | 12.019 | 0.482 | 0.075 |
Indiana | 6.916 | 4.987 | 0 | 0.096 |
Iowa | 3.392 | 3.42 | 0.151 | 0.037 |
Kansas | 3.517 | 2.238 | 0.204 | 0.041 |
Kentucky | 4.535 | 3.323 | 0.121 | 0.022 |
Louisiana | 4.756 | 4.062 | 0.107 | 0.074 |
Maine | 1.771 | 1.967 | 0.235 | 0.027 |
Maryland | 4.016 | 5.696 | 0.266 | 0.021 |
Massachusetts | 3.936 | 7.234 | 0.781 | 0.05 |
Michigan | 8.382 | 9.267 | 0.351 | 0 |
Minnesota | 4.574 | 4.813 | 0.522 | 0.092 |
Mississippi | 4.009 | 2.917 | 0.058 | 0.016 |
Missouri | 5.571 | 5.203 | 0.18 | 0.046 |
Montana | 1.766 | 1.011 | 0.18 | 0.042 |
Nebraska | 3.14 | 1.657 | 0.177 | 0.026 |
Nevada | 1.995 | 1.852 | 0.099 | 0.031 |
New Hampshire | 1.938 | 1.886 | 0.157 | 0.018 |
New Jersey | 6.085 | 8.431 | 0.45 | 0.033 |
New Mexico | 2.363 | 2.443 | 0.182 | 0.012 |
New York | 11.778 | 19.866 | 1.179 | 0.176 |
North Carolina | 7.887 | 6.069 | 0 | 0.044 |
North Dakota | 1.828 | 0.997 | 0.099 | 0.076 |
Ohio | 10.583 | 9.769 | 0.528 | 0.12 |
Oklahoma | 4.85 | 3.091 | 0 | 0.059 |
Oregon | 3.307 | 3.323 | 0.338 | 0.032 |
Pennsylvania | 10.74 | 11.694 | 0.486 | 0.08 |
Rhode Island | 1.285 | 2.458 | 0.234 | 0.022 |
South Carolina | 4.574 | 3.286 | 0.119 | 0.02 |
South Dakota | 1.828 | 1.14 | 0 | 0.032 |
Tennessee | 5.646 | 5.226 | 0.105 | 0.023 |
Texas | 19.058 | 12.188 | 0.691 | 0.062 |
Utah | 3.375 | 1.329 | 0.235 | 0.061 |
Vermont | 1.236 | 1.536 | 0.205 | 0.023 |
Virginia | 6.849 | 5.841 | 0.283 | 0.027 |
Washington | 4.986 | 5.546 | 0.437 | 0.031 |
West Virginia | 2.599 | 2.294 | 0.082 | 0.024 |
Wisconsin | 5.265 | 5.291 | 0.396 | 0.048 |
Wyoming | 2.101 | 0.86 | 0 | 0.039 |
Total | 260.965 | 259.95 | 14.562 | 2.493 |
We can already see one oddity creeping in — though Gore has the most popular votes in the nation, Bush has the most electoral votes in this scheme, but not enough to elect him.
But fractional electoral votes seem hokey to me, so let’s simply round every candidate’s electoral votes to the nearest integer. In some cases, this results in an under- or over-allocation of electoral votes. And in all cases, Buchanan’s allocation is zero, so we’ll drop him from the rest of this discussion.
State | Bush | Gore | Nader | Difference |
Alabama | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Alaska | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Arizona | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Arkansas | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
California | 23 | 29 | 2 | 0 |
Colorado | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Connecticut | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Delaware | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
District of Columbia | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Florida | 12 | 12 | 0 | 1 |
Georgia | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Hawaii | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Idaho | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Illinois | 9 | 12 | 0 | 1 |
Indiana | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Iowa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Kansas | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kentucky | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Louisiana | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Maine | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Maryland | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Massachusetts | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
Michigan | 8 | 9 | 0 | 1 |
Minnesota | 5 | 5 | 1 | -1 |
Mississippi | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Missouri | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Montana | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Nebraska | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Nevada | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
New Hampshire | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
New Jersey | 6 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
New Mexico | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
New York | 12 | 20 | 1 | 0 |
North Carolina | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
North Dakota | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ohio | 11 | 10 | 1 | -1 |
Oklahoma | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Oregon | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Pennsylvania | 11 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rhode Island | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
South Carolina | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
South Dakota | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Tennessee | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Texas | 19 | 12 | 1 | 0 |
Utah | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Vermont | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Virginia | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Washington | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
West Virginia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Wisconsin | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
Wyoming | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 263 | 259 | 7 | 9 |
Bush’s lead has increased, but we’re not done. Now, let’s take the under- or over-allocation in each state and assign it to the leader in that state.
State | Bush | Gore | Nader |
Alabama | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Alaska | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Arizona | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Arkansas | 3 | 3 | 0 |
California | 23 | 29 | 2 |
Colorado | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Connecticut | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Delaware | 1 | 2 | 0 |
District of Columbia | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Florida | 12 | 13 | 0 |
Georgia | 7 | 6 | 0 |
Hawaii | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Idaho | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Illinois | 9 | 13 | 0 |
Indiana | 7 | 5 | 0 |
Iowa | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Kansas | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Kentucky | 5 | 3 | 0 |
Louisiana | 5 | 4 | 0 |
Maine | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Maryland | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Massachusetts | 4 | 7 | 1 |
Michigan | 8 | 10 | 0 |
Minnesota | 5 | 4 | 1 |
Mississippi | 4 | 3 | 0 |
Missouri | 6 | 5 | 0 |
Montana | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Nebraska | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Nevada | 2 | 2 | 0 |
New Hampshire | 2 | 2 | 0 |
New Jersey | 6 | 9 | 0 |
New Mexico | 2 | 3 | 0 |
New York | 12 | 20 | 1 |
North Carolina | 8 | 6 | 0 |
North Dakota | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Ohio | 11 | 9 | 1 |
Oklahoma | 5 | 3 | 0 |
Oregon | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Pennsylvania | 11 | 12 | 0 |
Rhode Island | 1 | 3 | 0 |
South Carolina | 5 | 3 | 0 |
South Dakota | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Tennessee | 6 | 5 | 0 |
Texas | 19 | 12 | 1 |
Utah | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Vermont | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Virginia | 7 | 6 | 0 |
Washington | 5 | 6 | 0 |
West Virginia | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Wisconsin | 5 | 6 | 0 |
Wyoming | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Total | 263 | 268 | 7 |
Now, Gore is back in the lead, but still short of a majority. So let’s allocate Nader’s votes to the leader in each state.
State | Bush | Gore |
Alabama | 5 | 4 |
Alaska | 2 | 1 |
Arizona | 4 | 4 |
Arkansas | 3 | 3 |
California | 23 | 31 |
Colorado | 4 | 4 |
Connecticut | 3 | 5 |
Delaware | 1 | 2 |
District of Columbia | 0 | 3 |
Florida | 12 | 13 |
Georgia | 7 | 6 |
Hawaii | 2 | 2 |
Idaho | 3 | 1 |
Illinois | 9 | 13 |
Indiana | 7 | 5 |
Iowa | 3 | 4 |
Kansas | 4 | 2 |
Kentucky | 5 | 3 |
Louisiana | 5 | 4 |
Maine | 2 | 2 |
Maryland | 4 | 6 |
Massachusetts | 4 | 8 |
Michigan | 8 | 10 |
Minnesota | 5 | 5 |
Mississippi | 4 | 3 |
Missouri | 6 | 5 |
Montana | 2 | 1 |
Nebraska | 3 | 2 |
Nevada | 2 | 2 |
New Hampshire | 2 | 2 |
New Jersey | 6 | 9 |
New Mexico | 2 | 3 |
New York | 12 | 21 |
North Carolina | 8 | 6 |
North Dakota | 2 | 1 |
Ohio | 11 | 10 |
Oklahoma | 5 | 3 |
Oregon | 3 | 4 |
Pennsylvania | 11 | 12 |
Rhode Island | 1 | 3 |
South Carolina | 5 | 3 |
South Dakota | 2 | 1 |
Tennessee | 6 | 5 |
Texas | 19 | 13 |
Utah | 3 | 2 |
Vermont | 1 | 2 |
Virginia | 7 | 6 |
Washington | 5 | 6 |
West Virginia | 3 | 2 |
Wisconsin | 5 | 6 |
Wyoming | 2 | 1 |
Total | 263 | 275 |
And we see that Gore would be elected, which is the result I personally would like — but by this point, we’ve made so many arbitrary decisions to get integral electoral votes and a final result that I suspect going to the House would be a better answer.