Analysis of the 2000 Presidential Election

I’ve done more analysis of proportional allocation, and it can, perhaps, be made to work, but it’s hokey. Let’s start with the raw popular vote (courtesy of ABC News’ website):

State Electoral
Votes
Bush Gore Nader Buchanan
Alabama 9 940153 694734 17983 6303
Alaska 3 134829 63437 22601 4194
Arizona 8 673657 609937 40301 10903
Arkansas 6 469918 417949 13205 10936
California 54 4054756 5254500 372543 39897
Colorado 8 883858 738378 91461 10479
Connecticut 8 544704 789532 59950 4382
Delaware 3 137081 180638 8288 775
District of Columbia 3 17020 162004 9925 0
Florida 25 2910203 2909872 96844 17358
Georgia 13 1404058 1101101 0 10868
Hawaii 4 137785 205209 21609 1071
Idaho 4 336299 138354 0 7687
Illinois 22 2012154 2566489 103028 16060
Indiana 12 1231713 888201 0 17173
Iowa 7 628716 633969 27898 6942
Kansas 6 614419 391026 35583 7239
Kentucky 8 869946 637518 23125 4181
Louisiana 9 924670 789837 20817 14478
Maine 4 283988 315466 37757 4315
Maryland 10 770911 1093344 51078 4067
Massachusetts 12 876106 1610175 173758 11086
Michigan 18 1936288 2140755 81089 0
Minnesota 10 1110192 1168091 126579 22256
Mississippi 7 548634 399306 7890 2233
Missouri 11 1189521 1110826 38488 9806
Montana 3 239755 137264 24487 5735
Nebraska 5 408719 215616 22975 3431
Nevada 4 301539 279949 15004 4747
New Hampshire 4 273135 265853 22156 2603
New Jersey 15 1247791 1729021 92333 6868
New Mexico 5 258795 267501 19911 1347
New York 33 2218620 3742101 222075 33202
North Carolina 14 1607238 1236721 0 8971
North Dakota 3 175547 95723 9524 7330
Ohio 21 2294049 2117555 114474 25980
Oklahoma 8 744335 474326 0 9014
Oregon 7 667803 671178 68175 6490
Pennsylvania 23 2264309 2465412 102453 16879
Rhode Island 4 132212 252844 24115 2250
South Carolina 8 804826 578143 21008 3540
South Dakota 3 190515 118750 0 3314
Tennessee 11 1056480 977789 19694 4218
Texas 32 3796249 2427785 137706 12423
Utah 5 512161 201732 35661 9277
Vermont 3 119273 148166 19810 2182
Virginia 13 1426951 1216925 58864 5578
Washington 11 794567 883794 69578 4953
West Virginia 5 329708 291088 10440 3101
Wisconsin 11 1235991 1242115 92925 11206
Wyoming 3 147674 60421 0 2724
Total 538 48889821 49108420 2685168 442052

Now, if we allocate the electoral votes in each state in strict proportion to the popular vote in the state, we get this result:

State Bush Gore Nader Buchanan
Alabama 5.1 3.769 0.098 0.034
Alaska 1.797 0.846 0.301 0.056
Arizona 4.038 3.656 0.242 0.065
Arkansas 3.092 2.75 0.087 0.072
California 22.522 29.187 2.069 0.222
Colorado 4.101 3.426 0.424 0.049
Connecticut 3.116 4.516 0.343 0.025
Delaware 1.258 1.658 0.076 0.007
District of Columbia 0.27 2.572 0.158 0
Florida 12.26 12.259 0.408 0.073
Georgia 7.255 5.689 0 0.056
Hawaii 1.507 2.245 0.236 0.012
Idaho 2.789 1.147 0 0.064
Illinois 9.423 12.019 0.482 0.075
Indiana 6.916 4.987 0 0.096
Iowa 3.392 3.42 0.151 0.037
Kansas 3.517 2.238 0.204 0.041
Kentucky 4.535 3.323 0.121 0.022
Louisiana 4.756 4.062 0.107 0.074
Maine 1.771 1.967 0.235 0.027
Maryland 4.016 5.696 0.266 0.021
Massachusetts 3.936 7.234 0.781 0.05
Michigan 8.382 9.267 0.351 0
Minnesota 4.574 4.813 0.522 0.092
Mississippi 4.009 2.917 0.058 0.016
Missouri 5.571 5.203 0.18 0.046
Montana 1.766 1.011 0.18 0.042
Nebraska 3.14 1.657 0.177 0.026
Nevada 1.995 1.852 0.099 0.031
New Hampshire 1.938 1.886 0.157 0.018
New Jersey 6.085 8.431 0.45 0.033
New Mexico 2.363 2.443 0.182 0.012
New York 11.778 19.866 1.179 0.176
North Carolina 7.887 6.069 0 0.044
North Dakota 1.828 0.997 0.099 0.076
Ohio 10.583 9.769 0.528 0.12
Oklahoma 4.85 3.091 0 0.059
Oregon 3.307 3.323 0.338 0.032
Pennsylvania 10.74 11.694 0.486 0.08
Rhode Island 1.285 2.458 0.234 0.022
South Carolina 4.574 3.286 0.119 0.02
South Dakota 1.828 1.14 0 0.032
Tennessee 5.646 5.226 0.105 0.023
Texas 19.058 12.188 0.691 0.062
Utah 3.375 1.329 0.235 0.061
Vermont 1.236 1.536 0.205 0.023
Virginia 6.849 5.841 0.283 0.027
Washington 4.986 5.546 0.437 0.031
West Virginia 2.599 2.294 0.082 0.024
Wisconsin 5.265 5.291 0.396 0.048
Wyoming 2.101 0.86 0 0.039
Total 260.965 259.95 14.562 2.493

We can already see one oddity creeping in — though Gore has the most popular votes in the nation, Bush has the most electoral votes in this scheme, but not enough to elect him.

But fractional electoral votes seem hokey to me, so let’s simply round every candidate’s electoral votes to the nearest integer. In some cases, this results in an under- or over-allocation of electoral votes. And in all cases, Buchanan’s allocation is zero, so we’ll drop him from the rest of this discussion.

State Bush Gore Nader Difference
Alabama 5 4 0 0
Alaska 2 1 0 0
Arizona 4 4 0 0
Arkansas 3 3 0 0
California 23 29 2 0
Colorado 4 3 0 1
Connecticut 3 5 0 0
Delaware 1 2 0 0
District of Columbia 0 3 0 0
Florida 12 12 0 1
Georgia 7 6 0 0
Hawaii 2 2 0 0
Idaho 3 1 0 0
Illinois 9 12 0 1
Indiana 7 5 0 0
Iowa 3 3 0 1
Kansas 4 2 0 0
Kentucky 5 3 0 0
Louisiana 5 4 0 0
Maine 2 2 0 0
Maryland 4 6 0 0
Massachusetts 4 7 1 0
Michigan 8 9 0 1
Minnesota 5 5 1 -1
Mississippi 4 3 0 0
Missouri 6 5 0 0
Montana 2 1 0 0
Nebraska 3 2 0 0
Nevada 2 2 0 0
New Hampshire 2 2 0 0
New Jersey 6 8 0 1
New Mexico 2 2 0 1
New York 12 20 1 0
North Carolina 8 6 0 0
North Dakota 2 1 0 0
Ohio 11 10 1 -1
Oklahoma 5 3 0 0
Oregon 3 3 0 1
Pennsylvania 11 12 0 0
Rhode Island 1 2 0 1
South Carolina 5 3 0 0
South Dakota 2 1 0 0
Tennessee 6 5 0 0
Texas 19 12 1 0
Utah 3 1 0 1
Vermont 1 2 0 0
Virginia 7 6 0 0
Washington 5 6 0 0
West Virginia 3 2 0 0
Wisconsin 5 5 0 1
Wyoming 2 1 0 0
Total 263 259 7 9

Bush’s lead has increased, but we’re not done. Now, let’s take the under- or over-allocation in each state and assign it to the leader in that state.

State Bush Gore Nader
Alabama 5 4 0
Alaska 2 1 0
Arizona 4 4 0
Arkansas 3 3 0
California 23 29 2
Colorado 4 4 0
Connecticut 3 5 0
Delaware 1 2 0
District of Columbia 0 3 0
Florida 12 13 0
Georgia 7 6 0
Hawaii 2 2 0
Idaho 3 1 0
Illinois 9 13 0
Indiana 7 5 0
Iowa 3 4 0
Kansas 4 2 0
Kentucky 5 3 0
Louisiana 5 4 0
Maine 2 2 0
Maryland 4 6 0
Massachusetts 4 7 1
Michigan 8 10 0
Minnesota 5 4 1
Mississippi 4 3 0
Missouri 6 5 0
Montana 2 1 0
Nebraska 3 2 0
Nevada 2 2 0
New Hampshire 2 2 0
New Jersey 6 9 0
New Mexico 2 3 0
New York 12 20 1
North Carolina 8 6 0
North Dakota 2 1 0
Ohio 11 9 1
Oklahoma 5 3 0
Oregon 3 4 0
Pennsylvania 11 12 0
Rhode Island 1 3 0
South Carolina 5 3 0
South Dakota 2 1 0
Tennessee 6 5 0
Texas 19 12 1
Utah 3 2 0
Vermont 1 2 0
Virginia 7 6 0
Washington 5 6 0
West Virginia 3 2 0
Wisconsin 5 6 0
Wyoming 2 1 0
Total 263 268 7

Now, Gore is back in the lead, but still short of a majority. So let’s allocate Nader’s votes to the leader in each state.

State Bush Gore
Alabama 5 4
Alaska 2 1
Arizona 4 4
Arkansas 3 3
California 23 31
Colorado 4 4
Connecticut 3 5
Delaware 1 2
District of Columbia 0 3
Florida 12 13
Georgia 7 6
Hawaii 2 2
Idaho 3 1
Illinois 9 13
Indiana 7 5
Iowa 3 4
Kansas 4 2
Kentucky 5 3
Louisiana 5 4
Maine 2 2
Maryland 4 6
Massachusetts 4 8
Michigan 8 10
Minnesota 5 5
Mississippi 4 3
Missouri 6 5
Montana 2 1
Nebraska 3 2
Nevada 2 2
New Hampshire 2 2
New Jersey 6 9
New Mexico 2 3
New York 12 21
North Carolina 8 6
North Dakota 2 1
Ohio 11 10
Oklahoma 5 3
Oregon 3 4
Pennsylvania 11 12
Rhode Island 1 3
South Carolina 5 3
South Dakota 2 1
Tennessee 6 5
Texas 19 13
Utah 3 2
Vermont 1 2
Virginia 7 6
Washington 5 6
West Virginia 3 2
Wisconsin 5 6
Wyoming 2 1
Total 263 275

And we see that Gore would be elected, which is the result I personally would like — but by this point, we’ve made so many arbitrary decisions to get integral electoral votes and a final result that I suspect going to the House would be a better answer.